INBREEDING TO DANEHILL – HOW IS THAT WORKING?

Written 8 August 2013

Having analysed the statistics of the positioning of Danehill in the pedigrees of horses inbred to him, it is relevant to group them under those bred through two sons of Danehill and those which carry a son and a daughter of Danehill (sex balanced).

There are negligible numbers of inbred runners with Danehill on either the 2nd (2 x 2) or 4th (4 x 4) generations (the former because most people would avoid this cross and the latter because there are not enough stallions / mares carrying Danehill on the fourth remove to have a good crop of runners).

So we will concentrate on the horses inbred to Danehill from 2 x 3 (and reverse) through to 3 x 4 (and reverse). The winners to runners ratio and the Average Earnings Index (AEI – the ‘average’ of all runners benchmarked at 1.0) are the major indicators. The AEI essentially indicates the quality of runner, stakes winners of course contributing more to the overall earnings for a sire or cross.

Inbreeding To Danehill Through Two Sons

Breeding a son of Danehill with a paternal granddaughter of Danehill (2m x 3m) has only a 42% winners to runners and a substandard  AEI of 0.52.

Breeding a son of Danehill with a paternal great granddaughter (2m x 4m) of Danehill sees the winner to runners rise to 50% but with an AEI still below half the ‘average’ at 0.48.

Once we get Danehill back on the third remove of the sire line of a runner, the stats start to improve.

A grandson of Danehill over a paternal granddaughter of Danehill (3m x 3m) is the most common inbreeding to Danehill, with 175 runners bred on this pattern. It has a low winners to runners of 45%, but an AEI of 0.92 (nearly reaching the average). There are five stakes winners and four stakes placegetters bred on this pattern. Of the nine stakes horses, five carry Danehill Dancer on one side of their pedigree (via a daughter or his sons Choisir and Monsieur Bond). Another sire which popped up more than once in this group of stakes horses was Flying Spur, present in three of them.

There were only 4 runners bred on a 3m x 4m cross of Danehill, for two winners (50%) and an AEI of 0.50.

Sex balanced inbreeding to Danehill

When a son of Danehill meets with a granddaughter of Danehill (2m x 3f), the stats jump to a winners to runners of 58% and an AEI of 1.38 – well ‘above average’. Of the four stakes winners and four stakes placegetters (from 69 runners), there is no obvious pattern, ie no sire turns up more than once in this group.

Putting a grandson of Danehill over a daughter of Danehill (3m x 2f) has a 60% winners to runners ratio and an AEI of 0.82. Still under par, but better.

Moving to a 3m x 3f pattern, interestingly the winners to runners (53/17) drops to 32%, however their earnings (therefore quality) rises to an AEI of 1.50%. Obviously there is only a relatively small group of grandsons and granddaughters of Danehill long enough at stud to figure in these statistics, whoever it’s interesting that Stratum is the sire of the sole stakes winner and also one of the two stakes placegetters bred on this pattern. Snitzel is the sire of the other placegetter. Both are sons of Redoute’s Choice.

Sires carrying a daughter of Danehill on their third remove, put over paternal granddaughters of Danehill (3f x 3m), have only 5 runners for 1 winner (AEI 0.30) – a sample too small to form a conclusion.

In Summary

With the vast majority of runners inbred to Danehill at this point carrying him on their second and third removes (in various combinations of position and gender), there are some interesting results.

The combination with the best results to-date is mating a grandson of Danehill with a mare out of a daughter of Danehill (3m x 3f). This is followed by a son of Danehill with a mare from a daughter of Danehill (2m x 3f).

The third most successful pattern (despite having about three times the numbers of runners than the previous two) is inbreeding to Danehill via a grandson over a paternal granddaughter of Danehill (3m x 3m). Throwing Danehill Dancer or Flying Spur into this combo seems to get the best results at this stage, whereas the sex balanced inbreeding does not seem to show any bias.